Crude oil prices experienced a notable decline of 3.79%, concluding at Rs 5,198, as renewed concerns regarding an oversupplied global market exerted pressure. The decline was influenced by indications that OPEC+ members are progressively reinstating production capacity, while non-OPEC producers, especially in the U.S. and Brazil, are increasing their output levels. These developments have heightened concerns regarding an expanding supply surplus.

Contributing to the prevailing bearish sentiment, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated in its most recent World Energy Outlook that demand for oil and gas may persist in its growth trajectory until 2050. This marks a departure from its previous assessment of an imminent peak in demand, underscoring the ongoing reliance on hydrocarbons in the face of climate objectives. In the United States, crude inventories experienced a significant increase of 5.202 million barrels during the week concluding on October 31, marking the largest weekly rise since late July and surpassing forecasts of a 0.6-million-barrel uptick.

Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by 0.3 million barrels, whereas gasoline and distillate stocks decreased by 4.73 million and 0.64 million barrels, respectively, indicating robust refining operations. In terms of demand, China’s crude oil imports increased by 8.2% year-on-year in October, reaching 48.36 million metric tons, equivalent to 11.4 million barrels per day — marking the highest refinery utilization rates observed in 2025 to date.

Total imports for the first ten months rose by 3.1% to 471 million tons, providing some degree of demand-side support. Crude oil continues to experience significant selling pressure, as evidenced by a 28.75% increase in open interest, now totaling 12,222. Support levels are identified at Rs 5,123 and Rs 5,049, whereas resistance levels are established at Rs 5,337 and Rs 5,477.