Gold prices surged 2.06% to settle at Rs 1,26,465, driven by increasing expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, as indications of a cooling U.S. labor market bolstered the argument for monetary easing. Data indicating that U.S. companies are eliminating an average of 11,250 jobs per week as of late October has intensified speculation regarding a potential 25-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming month, with market participants assigning approximately a 68% likelihood to this outcome. The expected conclusion of the extended U.S. government shutdown contributed to a degree of stability in investor sentiment, although demand for safe-haven assets continued to be bolstered.

On a global scale, the demand for physical gold exhibited varied trends. In the first three quarters of 2025, China’s consumption experienced a decline of 7.95% year-on-year, totaling 682.73 tonnes, whereas domestic output saw an increase of 1.39%, reaching 271.78 tonnes. In India, elevated and fluctuating prices have dampened retail demand, leading dealers to provide discounts of up to $14 per ounce. Meanwhile, China’s recent policy to limit tax exemptions for gold retailers to 6% has impacted buying interest.

Regionally, premiums fluctuated between $1.5 and $3.5 across Singapore and Hong Kong, whereas demand in Japan continued to exhibit weakness. As reported by the World Gold Council, global gold demand experienced a 3% increase year-on-year, reaching 1,313 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025, marking the highest level on record. This growth was propelled by a notable 17% surge in bar and coin purchases, alongside a remarkable 134% rise in ETF inflows, which counterbalanced a 23% decline in jewelry demand.

Central banks raised their purchases by 10% to a total of 219.9 tonnes. The market experienced a reduction in open interest, declining by 7.13% to 11,986, indicative of short covering activity. Support is positioned at Rs 1,24,510 and Rs 1,22,555, whereas resistance is identified at Rs 1,27,560 and Rs 1,28,655.