Natural gas prices experienced a decline of 0.79%, settling at Rs 399.6 per mmBtu. This decrease is attributed to near-record production levels in the U.S. and substantial storage capacities, despite the presence of strong demand and unprecedented flows to LNG export facilities. The average gas production in the Lower 48 states reached 109.1 bcfd in November, marking a new monthly high. This increase is attributed to ongoing growth from October’s already record pace, allowing energy companies to sustain stockpiles approximately 4% above seasonal norms.

The most recent injection resulted in an addition of 45 billion cubic feet to storage for the week ending November 7, bringing total stocks to 3,960 bcf. This figure is merely 0.2% below the levels recorded last year and stands 4.5% above the five-year average. ?Meteorologists anticipate above-average temperatures until November 26, followed by a shift to colder conditions from November 28 to December 5. This transition is expected to increase heating demand and could lead to a rise in prices as winter draws near.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that both output and domestic consumption will achieve new highs in 2025, while LNG exports are projected to increase significantly, reaching 14.7 bcfd next year. Despite the supportive fundamentals, trading activity was characterized by long liquidation, as open interest fell sharply by 29.44% to 7,807 contracts, accompanied by a price decline of 3.2.

From a technical perspective, natural gas is currently encountering support at Rs 393.7, and a decline below this level could lead prices to test Rs 387.8. Resistance is anticipated at Rs 407.2, with a breach of this threshold likely leading to an examination of Rs 414.8.