Natural gas prices decreased by 0.58% to Rs 447.4, as the market’s apprehensions regarding sufficient supplies overshadowed the potential uplift from predictions of colder weather. Pressure continued as U.S. storage levels are approximately 5% above the seasonal average, while decreasing gas prices in Europe and Asia—partly attributed to speculation regarding potential Ukraine peace talks that might alleviate sanctions on Russia—maintained a subdued global sentiment. Nonetheless, the downside was constrained by unprecedented LNG feedgas flows. Meteorologists anticipate that temperatures in the U.S. will remain below normal until December 9, with the most significant drop occurring around Thursday, followed by a shift to warmer conditions in the subsequent week.

LSEG data indicated that Lower-48 output has increased to 109.7 bcfd thus far in December, exceeding the record set in November, despite a recent decline in daily production from the peak of 111.3 bcfd. Strong output has facilitated substantial storage, with inventories at 3,923 bcf following a 12 bcf withdrawal last week—merely 0.5% below last year yet significantly above the five-year average.

The EIA forecasts that U.S. gas production will increase to 107.1 billion cubic feet per day by 2025, alongside consumption reaching unprecedented levels. LNG exports are projected to increase to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, rising from the current record of 11.9 bcfd.

From a technical perspective, natural gas is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 14.23% decline in open interest to 24,555, coinciding with a price decrease of Rs 2.6. Support is established at Rs 438.6, with additional decline anticipated toward Rs 429.9. Resistance currently stands at Rs 455.8, with a breakout potentially propelling prices to Rs 464.3.