Crude oil prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 1.7%, reaching Rs 5,802, bolstered by supply disruptions and a depreciated U.S. dollar. A significant winter storm caused a temporary disruption in U.S. crude production and halted exports from Gulf Coast ports, leading to a rebound in shipments and a tightening of near-term supply.

Further assistance was provided by Kazakhstan, where disruptions at the substantial Tengiz oilfield, caused by electrical fires, led to a loss of approximately 7.2 million barrels. Kazakhstan has initiated a phased restart of production; however, the energy minister has suggested that output is expected to stay within OPEC+ quotas in light of the recent downturn. OPEC+ is anticipated to sustain its halt on output increases for March, thereby providing additional support to prices.

The International Energy Agency has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast upward to 930,000 bpd, while simultaneously reducing supply growth estimates, indicating a tighter surplus in the market. The EIA has forecasted that U.S. crude production will reach its zenith in 2025, followed by a gradual decline in 2026 and 2027. Inventory data further bolstered prices, as U.S. crude stocks decreased by 2.296 million barrels, which included a draw at Cushing.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new buying activity, evidenced by a 9.17% increase in open interest alongside a price gain of Rs 97. Support is identified at Rs 5,723, beneath which prices could approach Rs 5,644. Conversely, resistance is established at Rs 5,871, with potential for upward movement towards Rs 5,940.