Gold prices experienced a further decline, closing down by 0.64% at Rs 152,071, as renewed selling pressure surfaced in response to cautious signals from the US Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s comments opposing immediate rate cuts, highlighting ongoing inflation risks, strengthened anticipations of a more gradual easing cycle. Sentiment was further shaped by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, a move that markets initially interpreted as indicative of a hawkish stance. However, Trump later clarified his expectation for forthcoming rate cuts. In the interim, geopolitical risks lingered, as US–Iran tensions persisted without resolution, notwithstanding the scheduled nuclear discussions in Oman.

Physical markets, however, persisted in demonstrating robust demand. Gold premiums in India have reached their highest level in more than ten years, driven by strong investment demand and anticipations of an impending duty increase, with dealers imposing premiums as high as $121 per ounce. China experienced a significant increase in premiums, propelled by heightened demand for jewellery and investment, while global prices remained close to record highs.

Heightened prices have attracted retail interest throughout Shanghai and Hong Kong, whereas Japan has maintained trading at relatively modest discounts. China’s gold fundamentals continue to exhibit supportive characteristics. In 2025, there was an increase in domestic production and imports, accompanied by a significant rise in investment demand through bars, coins, and ETFs, which counterbalanced the decline in jewellery consumption.

From a technical perspective, the market continues to experience long liquidation, as evidenced by a 0.75% decline in open interest. Gold exhibits support at Rs 148,950, with potential further downside risk extending to Rs 145,830. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 154,695, and a breakout could potentially lead to Rs 157,320.