Gold experienced a significant decline of 2.16%, closing at Rs 151,418, influenced by a robust U.S. dollar and a prevailing cautious sentiment in anticipation of updates regarding U.S.–Iran negotiations and new indications from the Federal Reserve. Comments from Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed indicated that rates might eventually decline, although persistent services inflation continues to be a concern. In January, the U.S. Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2%, maintaining market attention on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

Investors are currently anticipating the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting for more definitive guidance, with expectations for rate cuts focused around the middle of the year. Geopolitical tensions, encompassing U.S.–Iran discussions and the resurgence of Russia–Ukraine negotiations, persist in supporting safe-haven interest. Analysts have revised their second-quarter gold forecast upward to $5,800 per ounce, attributing this adjustment to ongoing global uncertainties.

In physical markets, Indian dealers resorted to offering discounts due to the dampening effect of high prices on demand, whereas buying interest in China remained robust in anticipation of the Lunar New Year. Data indicated that China’s total gold output increased by 3.35% in 2025, despite a decline in overall consumption, with ETF inflows and central bank purchases offering support.

Gold is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, as indicated by a 1.07% increase in open interest. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 150,110, with additional downside potential extending to Rs 148,805. Resistance is identified at Rs 153,340, with a potential breach leading to a test of Rs 155,265.