Natural gas increased by 2.17% to close at Rs 282.2, buoyed by near-record levels of LNG export flows and revised forecasts indicating colder weather and heightened heating demand in the forthcoming two weeks. In February, the average flows to eight U.S. LNG export facilities reached 18.6 bcfd, nearing the record levels observed in December, thereby establishing a robust foundation for demand. Nonetheless, the increases were constrained by heightened production levels and a storage draw that aligned closely with typical seasonal patterns.

Production in the contiguous United States has averaged 108.7 billion cubic feet per day this month, an increase from 106.3 billion cubic feet per day in January and approaching the record high set in December. The U.S. Energy Information Administration disclosed a withdrawal of 144 bcf for the week ending February 13, which is less than the 182 bcf draw recorded in the previous year and marginally below the five-year average decline.

Total inventories currently amount to 2.070 tcf, approximately 5.6% lower than the five-year average; however, analysts anticipate that the deficit will decrease as milder weather curtails demand. In the future, the EIA anticipates that dry gas production will reach a historic high of 110 bcfd by 2026, with demand remaining stable at approximately 91.6 bcfd.

The market is currently experiencing short covering, evidenced by a decline in open interest of 18.64%. Support levels are identified at Rs 271.5 and Rs 260.7, whereas resistance is noted at Rs 289.9; a breakout may drive prices towards Rs 297.5.