Natural gas prices decreased by 2.24%, concluding at Rs 262.1, influenced by near-record production levels and predictions indicating milder weather along with reduced heating demand in the upcoming week. Output across the Lower 48 states has averaged 108.6 bcfd so far in February, an increase from January’s 106.3 bcfd and approaching December’s record of 109.7 bcfd.

Weather models indicate that temperatures are likely to stay predominantly above normal until at least March 5, which will diminish immediate consumption requirements. Storage levels are currently constrained, with inventories approximately 5–6% lower than the five-year average and 2.8% beneath the levels observed a year ago. Analysts anticipate a substantial reduction in the current deficit by early March.

For the week ended February 13, utilities withdrew 144 bcf from storage, which aligns with seasonal expectations, following a substantial 249 bcf draw the prior week amid an Arctic blast. In the interim, total demand, encompassing exports, is anticipated to increase from 125.2 bcfd this week to 133.1 bcfd in the following week. LNG feedgas flows remain robust, averaging 18.6 bcfd in February, poised to exceed the record set in December. Looking forward, the U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that production will reach new peaks in 2026 and 2027, with demand remaining relatively stable.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by a 34.25% increase in open interest, reaching 21,627. Support is identified at Rs 258.9, with additional potential decline towards Rs 255.7. Resistance is positioned at Rs 266.7, and an upward movement beyond this level may pave the way to Rs 271.3.