Gold prices increased by 0.74% to close at Rs 161,145, bolstered by a resurgence in safe-haven demand due to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policy. Market participants are attentively monitoring the imminent nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran, particularly in light of President Trump’s caution regarding possible military intervention should Iran fail to restrain its nuclear aspirations.

Simultaneously, the ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court against the imposition of additional tariffs has introduced an additional dimension of trade uncertainty, notwithstanding the administration’s suggestion of new global levies. The institutional outlook continues to exhibit a positive sentiment. JP Morgan anticipates that gold may reach $6,300 per ounce by the conclusion of 2026 and has revised its long-term forecast upward to $4,500. Physical trade trends exhibited a varied performance.

In January, Swiss gold exports experienced an 8% decline, primarily due to a significant reduction in shipments to the UK, while exports to China and India saw an uptick. In India, demand remained subdued as a result of volatile prices, with dealers providing discounts reaching $18 per ounce. Nonetheless, January witnessed robust inflows into ETFs. In China, there was an increase in gold production and central bank reserves, alongside sustained investment demand through bars, coins, and ETFs.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 0.21% decrease in open interest, bringing it to 7,767. Support levels are identified at Rs 160,320 and Rs 159,500, whereas resistance is noted at Rs 161,805. A breach of this level may propel prices towards Rs 162,470.