Natural gas prices experienced a significant decline of 3.24%, closing at Rs 265.4, influenced by a reduction in geopolitical tensions that affected market sentiment. Donald Trump indicated that the United States might withdraw from the Iran conflict in the coming weeks, leading to heightened anticipation that disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz could progressively diminish.

While a recovery in supply flows may require time, any de-escalation diminishes immediate risk premiums within energy markets. Concurrently, seasonal factors are exerting additional pressure. The shift into the spring shoulder period generally results in a decline in heating demand, and predictions of above-average temperatures throughout the eastern U.S. are bolstering expectations of reduced consumption. This is expected to hasten the accumulation of inventory, with storage anticipated to transition from a modest surplus in mid-March to a more substantial surplus by mid-April.

The underlying supply outlook continues to exhibit robustness. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that natural gas production will reach unprecedented levels in the near future, whereas demand is anticipated to experience a modest decline. Despite disruptions in key shipping routes affecting LNG flows, the long-term projections for export growth continue to hold steady.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by a significant increase in open interest, which has surged by 21.21% to reach 32,497 lots. Immediate support is identified at Rs 260.9, with potential further decline toward Rs 256.3. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 272.8, and a movement above this threshold could drive prices toward Rs 280.1.