Copper prices increased by 1.44%, closing at Rs 1,210.15, primarily driven by a significant decline in inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which decreased by 11.5% over the past week. The downturn in equities suggests a strengthening of near-term demand, despite the prevailing caution in global markets. Market participants are meticulously observing the dynamics of US-Iran negotiations, given that geopolitical tensions persistently shape investor sentiment.

The recent ceasefire has alleviated concerns regarding a more profound global slowdown; however, uncertainty remains due to continuing disputes related to oil flows and regional conflicts. Simultaneously, recent data from China indicated that factory-gate prices have increased for the first time in more than three years, underscoring the growing cost pressures within the industrial sector, especially concerning non-ferrous metals. Nevertheless, the overall supply landscape continues to appear adequate.

Combined inventories across LME and Comex have risen above 900,000 tons, resulting in a broader discount in the cash market and suggesting an absence of immediate scarcity. Furthermore, Chinese smelters are anticipated to sustain or potentially augment production in 2026, whereas global entities such as Goldman Sachs and Citi foresee a surplus market and declining prices in the future.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 0.81% decline in open interest to 9,137, coinciding with an upward movement in prices. Copper is maintaining support at Rs 1,197, with a breach below possibly challenging Rs 1,183.8. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 1,219.4, and a movement above this threshold could drive prices toward Rs 1,228.6.