Natural gas prices concluded the session at Rs 283.40, with optimistic demand forecasts driven by weather patterns counterbalanced by adequate supply levels and profit-taking activities. Prices received a boost from a significant increase in crude oil and revised projections indicating above-average temperatures throughout the United States until early August, anticipated to elevate electricity consumption for air conditioning. Approximately 40% of electricity generation in the United States is derived from gas-fired power plants, which play a crucial role in meeting demand during the peak summer months.

LSEG estimates total U.S. gas demand, including exports, will average 111.0 billion cubic feet per day over the next two weeks, slightly higher than previous forecasts. On the supply side, U.S. Lower 48 dry gas production averaged 110.4 bcfd in July, an increase from 110.0 bcfd in June, yet remaining below the peak of 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. Average gas flows to major U.S. LNG export terminals have decreased to 17.2 bcfd, attributed to maintenance activities at the Freeport LNG facility, down from 17.4 bcfd in June.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, storage increased by 32 billion cubic feet during the latest reporting week, which is marginally below market expectations of a 35 bcf build. Total working gas inventories increased to 3.056 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.5% lower than the previous year’s figure yet 6.4% higher than the five-year seasonal average, suggesting a sufficient supply situation. The EIA anticipates that U.S. natural gas production and consumption will achieve unprecedented levels by 2026, with LNG exports expected to maintain their upward trajectory.

Technically, the market experienced long liquidation, as evidenced by a 34.82% decline in open interest, indicating the unwinding of existing long positions. Immediate support is identified at Rs 279.20, with subsequent support at Rs 274.90, whereas resistance is established at Rs 288.60. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 293.70.