Crude oil concluded the trading session with a 0.71% increase, reaching Rs 8,911, following US President Donald Trump’s dismissal of Iran’s recent proposal aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, thereby maintaining heightened geopolitical supply risks. Crude exports from major Middle East producers increased to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, marking the highest level since the onset of the war in February. Meanwhile, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were estimated at approximately 7.4 million bpd. Bank of America has adjusted its Brent forecast for the latter half of 2026, increasing it to $95 per barrel from a previous estimate of $83.
This revision is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the bank cautions that extended disruptions extending into spring 2027 could elevate front-month Brent prices beyond $150. Libya’s closure of the Sharara-Zawiya pipeline is resulting in a loss of approximately 130,000 barrels per day, exacerbating supply concerns in the region. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined to 284.6 million barrels, marking its lowest level since October 1982. EIA data indicated that US commercial crude inventories experienced an increase of 3 million barrels, reaching a total of 426.4 million barrels.
Concurrently, Cushing stocks saw a rise of 2.3 million barrels, bringing them to 23.7 million barrels. Refinery runs experienced a decrease of 519,000 bpd, resulting in a utilisation rate that has fallen to 94%. Petrol inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels, bringing the total to 206 million, whereas distillate stocks saw a reduction of 0.4 million barrels, resulting in a total of 107.4 million. OPEC has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast down to 380,000 bpd, representing the fifth consecutive downward adjustment. Meanwhile, the IEA has cautioned that diminishing inventories and limited refining capacity may exacerbate market tightness if disruptions in the Middle East continue into 2027.
Crude oil is currently experiencing renewed buying momentum, as evidenced by an 8.89% increase in open interest to 14,187, coupled with a price rise of Rs 63. This suggests a heightened level of market participation accompanying the upward trend. The market is currently finding support near Rs 8,686, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs 8,460. On the upside, resistance is positioned around Rs 9,215, while a decisive movement beyond this threshold could pave the way toward Rs 9,518.
