Aluminium concluded the trading session with a 0.57% increase, reaching Rs. 335.35, an uptick of Rs. 1.9. This rise was bolstered by a reduction in inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, which saw a decline of 7.8% compared to the report from September 30. However, the upside remained constrained by enhancing production in the Middle East and increasing shipments from Indonesia, suggesting improved global supply prospects. Japanese aluminium buyers have consented to a premium of $255 per metric tonne for shipments scheduled from October to December, marking a 35% decrease from the preceding quarter, indicative of alleviating supply concerns.
Macquarie has adjusted its forecast for the 2026 global aluminium market deficit to 820,000 tonnes, attributing this revision to quicker-than-anticipated restarts in Middle Eastern smelters. Furthermore, the firm anticipates a surplus of 410,000 tonnes in 2027. Average aluminium prices are projected to be $3,050 per tonne in 2027, a decline from $3,325 in 2026. Global aluminium production experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.5% in August, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute. Production in the Gulf Cooperation Council region experienced a significant decline of 43%, totalling 299,000 tonnes, whereas Chinese output saw a modest increase of 3%, reaching a record high of 3.87 million tonnes.
Russia and Eastern Europe experienced a production growth of 7%, in contrast to a decline of 1.5% in North American output. Meanwhile, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 57,244 tonnes, while stocks at the London Metal Exchange decreased by 15,575 tonnes, signalling a contraction in available supplies. In July 2026, China exported 643,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and semis, reflecting an 18.6% increase compared to the same month last year, although this figure represents a 9.6% decline from the previous month. Cumulative exports during the first seven months rose by 16.7% year on year to 4.04 million tonnes, underscoring the persistent availability of Chinese metal in global markets.
Additionally, Alcoa has revised its 2026 alumina production guidance downward to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes due to disruptions caused by cyclones and contamination issues at its Australian refinery. Aluminium is currently experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 2.44% decrease in open interest to 4,840 contracts, coinciding with a price rise of Rs. 1.9. Immediate support is positioned at Rs. 333.5, succeeded by Rs. 331.6, whereas resistance is established at Rs. 337.9 and Rs. 340.4. A sustained move above Rs. 337.9 could extend the recovery toward Rs. 340.4, whereas a break below Rs. 333.5 may expose the next support at Rs. 331.6.
