Copper settled down 0.19% at Rs 1,424.45, influenced by a robust US dollar trading near its highest level since April 2025, amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a cautious stance ahead of significant US inflation data. However, losses were constrained by apprehensions regarding potential mine supply disruptions, positive demand indicators emerging from China, and restricted visible inventories outside the United States. The Yangshan copper premium increased to $135 per tonne, reaching its highest level in four years, after China’s return from a week-long holiday, signalling robust demand for imported metal.
Meanwhile, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that copper inventories rose by 20,000 tonnes from the end of September, reaching 58,744 tonnes. This increase comes despite the fact that stocks at the end of September had dropped to their lowest level since January 2024. Copper prices garnered support from ongoing metal transfers into COMEX warehouses, reflecting the prevailing uncertainty regarding potential US import tariffs on refined copper. In Chile, state-owned Codelco reported a nearly 9% year-on-year increase in August copper production, reaching 101,700 tonnes. However, output at BHP-controlled Escondida declined 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes, while Collahuasi production fell 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes, underscoring supply-side challenges.
According to the International Copper Study Group, the global refined copper market experienced a deficit of 51,000 tonnes in July, a reduction from the 74,000 tonnes recorded in June. During the first seven months of the year, the market recorded a surplus of 32,000 tonnes, in contrast to a surplus of 157,000 tonnes during the same period the previous year. In July, refined copper production reached 2.41 million tonnes, while consumption was recorded at 2.46 million tonnes. China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased to 382,000 tonnes in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July. For the period from January to August, imports experienced a year-on-year decline of 6.7%, totalling 3.30 million tonnes.
Copper concentrate imports also declined to 19.49 million tonnes from 20.06 million tonnes. Technically, copper is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 7.92% decrease in open interest to 7,685 contracts, alongside a price decline of Rs 2.7. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 1,419.8, succeeded by Rs 1,415.2, whereas resistance is established at Rs 1,428.5. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,432.6, whereas a break below support may extend the downside.
