Gold prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 0.54%, reaching Rs 159401, as investors kept a close watch on the possible advancements in the resolution of the Iran conflict. Market sentiment showed signs of improvement following reports indicating that the United States might relax sanctions on Iranian oil exports, alongside Iran’s potential agreement to a long-term freeze on its nuclear program. Nevertheless, the increases were constrained as robust U.S. inflation figures persisted in bolstering the dollar and Treasury yields, thereby diminishing anticipations for Federal Reserve rate reductions this year and even rekindling speculation regarding a potential rate increase before the year’s conclusion.

Support for bullion persisted robustly, driven by ongoing substantial purchases from central banks. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for central bank gold acquisitions, now projecting an increase to approximately 60 tonnes per month until 2026, attributing this revision to ongoing diversification needs in the context of geopolitical instability. JPMorgan has revised its 2026 average gold price forecast down to $5,243 per ounce from a previous estimate of $5,708. However, the firm continues to hold a long-term optimistic perspective, anticipating that prices will near $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 as investment demand is expected to rebound.

In India, the demand for gold has shown signs of weakness following an increase in import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. This has resulted in unprecedented discounts reaching as high as $207 an ounce compared to official domestic prices. In the interim, China sustained robust premiums ranging from $15 to $20 per ounce, attributed to consistent investment demand. Data from the World Gold Council indicated that India’s investment demand experienced a significant increase of 52% year-on-year, reaching 82 tonnes in the March quarter, whereas global gold demand saw a modest rise of 2%, totaling 1,230.9 tonnes.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 4.12% decrease in open interest to 6929, alongside a price increase of Rs 854. Gold is receiving support at Rs 157875, and should it fall below this level, prices could potentially approach Rs 156350. Resistance is identified at Rs 160595, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 161790.