Copper prices increased by 1.26% to close at Rs 1,365.8, bolstered by apprehensions regarding constricting global supply conditions and revised price projections from leading investment banks. Market sentiment showed signs of improvement following Goldman Sachs’ upward revision of its end-2026 copper price forecast to $13,735 per metric tonne. This adjustment was attributed to a decline in mine supply growth coupled with an increase in demand beyond the borders of the United States. However, gains were partially constrained by the prevailing uncertainty regarding the peace negotiations in Iran and indications of a deceleration in manufacturing growth in China. Supply-side concerns persisted in supporting prices.

Production disruptions in Chile, characterised by shortages of sulphur and sulphuric acid, compelled refiners to lower their operating rates. Concurrently, output from significant mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is anticipated to remain below earlier projections through 2027. Chilean copper production experienced a decline of approximately 6% in the first quarter of 2026, which has further constrained supply expectations. Meanwhile, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.8% compared to the previous week, suggesting robust demand and diminished available stocks. China continued to be a significant contributor to market stability.

The country reported a 3.2% annual increase in unwrought copper imports during April, reaching a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tonnes. Robust investment in power infrastructure, evidenced by a 37% year-on-year increase in grid spending during the first quarter, has persistently fuelled copper consumption. Additionally, China’s central bank has urged banks to increase lending, bolstering expectations for heightened industrial activity and demand for metals. The International Copper Study Group reported that the refined copper market recorded a surplus of 30,000 metric tonnes in March, a notable decrease from February’s surplus of 270,000 tonnes.

Despite the organization’s projections of global surpluses in 2026 and 2027, the growth of mine supply is hindered by operational challenges and a scarcity of concentrate availability. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest as open interest increased by 0.85% to 17,479 contracts while prices moved higher. Copper has immediate support at Rs 1,355.7, with further support at Rs 1,345.6. On the upside, resistance is identified at Rs 1,372.3, and a sustained move above this threshold could facilitate further gains toward Rs 1,378.8.