Gold prices declined by 0.31% to close at Rs 146,917, influenced by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which exerted downward pressure on bullion prices. However, losses remained constrained following weaker-than-anticipated U.S. employment data, which bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve might postpone additional interest rate increases. In June, the growth of nonfarm payrolls experienced a significant deceleration, accompanied by downward revisions to the payroll figures for the preceding two months. This adjustment has led to a decrease in the likelihood of a rate hike in September, now estimated at approximately 50%, down from over 60% previously.

Investors are currently concentrating on the forthcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes to glean insights into potential policy direction. On the physical demand side, JPMorgan has upheld a favourable long-term perspective while anticipating a more gradual rate of increases, projecting average gold prices of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter. Demand in India has shown signs of weakening following a rebound in prices from recent lows, whereas there has been a slight improvement in Chinese buying activity. London’s gold vault holdings increased by 0.21% to 9,392 tonnes.

In contrast, global gold ETFs experienced net outflows of $2 billion in May, predominantly from Asia and North America. From a technical perspective, gold is experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 0.83% increase in open interest, which suggests the establishment of new short positions. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 146,260, with subsequent support at Rs 145,605, while resistance is identified at Rs 147,540. A sustained move above this level could open the door for further upside toward Rs 148,165.