Copper prices concluded the trading session with a 0.16% increase, reaching Rs 1,379.15. This uptick was bolstered by expectations of tightening global supply and apprehensions regarding limited mine output. Potential U.S. import tariffs persisted in redirecting copper toward American warehouses, while the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper concentrate export ban contributed to supply concerns. LME available copper inventories decreased significantly to 101,425 tonnes at the end of July, down from 201,700 tonnes in June.

Concurrently, the proportion of Chinese-origin stocks fell to 42%, a decline from the previous 59%. However, SHFE copper stocks increased 1.1% to 70,116 tonnes, while China’s Yangshan premium fell to $101 per tonne and domestic spot premium declined to 70 yuan, indicating a decrease in import demand. Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 refined copper deficit forecast outside the U.S. to 640,000 tonnes, up from a previous estimate of 60,000 tonnes, underscoring a notable tightening in availability. CFTC data indicated that speculative net-long COMEX positions increased by 11,307 contracts, reaching a total of 77,796 contracts.

Chilean production exhibited a mixed performance, as Escondida’s output increased by 45.8% year-on-year, reaching 111,400 tonnes, whereas Codelco’s production experienced a decline of 4.8%, totalling 114,400 tonnes. The ICSG reported a refined copper surplus of 18,000 tonnes in May, with the cumulative surplus from January to May totalling 221,000 tonnes. China’s July unwrought copper imports experienced an 11.5% year-on-year decline, totalling 425,000 tonnes. In contrast, refined copper production increased by 2.5%, reaching a record high of 1.334 million tonnes.

Technically, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as open interest has increased by 1.03% to 10,349 contracts, while prices have risen by Rs 2.2. Copper is currently finding support at Rs 1,374.8, and a breach of this level may lead to exposure at Rs 1,370.4. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 1,384.7; a sustained move above this level could catalyse additional gains toward Rs 1,390.2.