Gold and silver prices commenced trading on a positive note on Tuesday on the MCX, breaking a two-day decline. This uptick occurred amidst rising tensions between the United States and Iran, which led to a significant increase in oil prices, thereby heightening inflation concerns. These developments have reinforced expectations for elevated U.S. interest rates following the hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. In the domestic market, MCX silver futures for September 2026 delivery increased by Rs 615, reaching Rs 2,18,333 per kg. Gold futures for August 2026 delivery increased by Rs 691, reaching Rs 1,41,000 per 10 grams. In the previous session, gold declined by 0.20%, whereas silver experienced a decrease of 0.15%. Investors are anticipating the release of the June U.S. consumer price index data, scheduled for later on Tuesday, as they seek new insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

The recent decline in bullion prices coincided with the U.S. military’s third consecutive night of strikes against Iran. This development followed the attacks on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, occurring after U.S. President Donald Trump declared the reinstatement of Washington’s blockade on Iranian shipping in the Gulf. The geopolitical escalation has propelled oil prices to their highest levels since mid-June, following a nearly 9% increase in the preceding session. Simultaneously, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar exhibited strength, exerting downward pressure on the demand for non-yielding assets like gold. Adding to the pressure on gold, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that the central bank may need to increase interest rates in the near term if forthcoming data indicate that inflation remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target. He characterised monetary policy as being at a “crossroads.

Expectations of a more stringent monetary policy have solidified, as evidenced by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating that the likelihood of a September U.S. rate increase has escalated to approximately 78%, up from 57% just a week prior. Spot gold declined by 0.2% to $3,993.83 per ounce following a nearly 3% drop in the prior session, representing its most significant single-day percentage decrease in over a month. U.S. gold futures for August delivery exhibited minimal fluctuation, settling at $4,000.70 per ounce. Among other precious metals, spot silver declined by 1.2% to $56.98 per ounce after reaching a two-week low earlier in the session. Platinum experienced a decline of 1%, settling at $1,589.35, whereas palladium saw a slight decrease of 0.4%, reaching $1,242.54.

Manoj Kumar Jain indicated that gold has support levels at $3,955-3,910 per troy ounce, while resistance is positioned at $4,040-4,085. For silver, he identifies support in the range of $56.00 to $54.40 per troy ounce, while resistance is noted between $59.10 and $60.60. On the MCX, he anticipates that gold will encounter support within the Rs 1,39,100-1,37,700 range, while facing resistance at Rs 1,41,400-1,42,200. For silver, support is identified at Rs 2,16,000-2,12,400, whereas resistance is established at Rs 2,20,000-2,22,500. Jain advised traders to refrain from initiating new long positions in gold and silver at the present levels. However, he stated that long-term investors might consider utilising the current correction as an opportunity to accumulate the two precious metals via the SIP method.