Copper settled lower by 0.76% at Rs 1,365.5, influenced by a 1.1% increase in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories and a decline in Chinese manufacturing activity. China’s July manufacturing activity has decelerated to a four-month low, as the Politburo indicated a preference for existing policy measures over broad-based stimulus. This development has heightened concerns regarding near-term industrial demand. However, the downside remained constrained by tightening supply conditions.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has enacted an immediate ban on the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, allowing for one-year waivers under specific strategic conditions. LME copper inventories decreased to 226,650 tonnes, marking the lowest level since mid-February. Concurrently, the cash premium for three-month copper expanded to $130 per tonne, suggesting a tighter availability in the near term. COMEX stocks rose to 720,439 short tonnes as ongoing tariff uncertainty continued to draw metal into the United States. Supply growth exhibited a varied performance. Codelco has halted an expansion initiative at El Teniente in response to heightened seismic risks.
In contrast, Glencore reported a 15% year-on-year increase in copper production for the first half of the year, reaching 397,000 tonnes, while First Quantum saw a 5% rise in its Zambian output, totalling 184,929 tonnes. The global refined copper market experienced an 18,000-tonne surplus in May, a notable shift from the 145,000-tonne deficit recorded in April. China’s July unwrought copper imports fell by 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes, whereas refined copper production achieved a record high of 1.334 million tonnes, reflecting a 2.5% increase.
Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 4.87% decline in open interest to 10,410, accompanied by a price decrease of Rs 10.5. Copper exhibits a support level at Rs 1,357.2; a breach of this threshold may lead to a test of Rs 1,349. Resistance is positioned at Rs 1,380.9, and a sustained movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 1,396.4.