Gold concluded the trading session with a notable increase of 1.99%, reaching Rs 1,51,820. This rise was bolstered by the release of softer U.S. inflation data, a decline in oil prices, and diminished expectations regarding additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Markets currently assign a 55% likelihood to a rate hike in September, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, while geopolitical uncertainty persists following U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the conflict in Iran may conclude shortly.

Central-bank purchasing remains a significant source of structural support. China’s central bank has augmented its gold reserves for the 21st consecutive month, incorporating the largest quantity of bullion since October 2023. This increase raised holdings to 76.08 million fine troy ounces in July, up from 75.44 million in June. China’s gold imports experienced a remarkable increase of 89.1% year-on-year, reaching 864.95 tonnes during the first half of 2026. UBS anticipates that gold will attain a price of $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027. Global demand exhibited stability, with second-quarter gold demand recorded at 1,268.9 tonnes.

Notably, central-bank purchases surged to 289 tonnes, a significant increase from 57 tonnes in the first quarter, effectively counterbalancing 45 tonnes of outflows from ETFs. However, Indian demand exhibited a lacklustre performance, with Q2 demand decreasing by 6% year-on-year to 131.4 tonnes and net imports contracting by 23% to 98.1 tonnes. London vault holdings increased by 0.77% month-on-month, reaching a total of 9,464 tonnes.

Technically, the market continues to experience new buying activity, as evidenced by a 0.24% increase in open interest to 10,436, alongside a price increase of Rs 2,962. Gold exhibits support at Rs 1,49,800; a decline beneath this level could see it testing Rs 1,47,775. Resistance is positioned at Rs 1,53,215, and a sustained movement above this threshold may drive prices toward Rs 1,54,605.