Crude oil concluded the trading session with a 0.66% increase, reaching Rs.8,359. This uptick was bolstered by escalating worries regarding potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, following the United States’ warning of its most stringent sanctions yet on Iran, which has heightened apprehensions about extended limitations on crude flows in the region. Iran cautioned that any additional threats from the United States could elicit a severe reaction, while the prospect of further sanctions heightened uncertainty regarding Iranian exports. Oil prices continued to receive support from supply restrictions imposed by key producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.

Iranian crude offers to Chinese buyers experienced a significant decline this week due to disruptions in shipments caused by the US blockade, resulting in an increase in Iranian crude prices. Activity through the Strait of Hormuz has diminished, with merely seven commodity ships transiting, approximately half of the volume observed the previous day, underscoring persistent transportation risks. Saudi crude exports rose to 3.993 million barrels per day in June, up from a record-low of 3.434 million bpd in May, suggesting a recovery in physical supply.

In the United States, crude inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels, reaching 428.8 million barrels for the week ending August 14, whereas stocks at Cushing experienced a decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Refinery crude runs experienced an uptick of 216,000 barrels per day, while refinery utilisation saw an increase of one percentage point. Petrol inventories rose by 0.7 million barrels, reaching a total of 209.4 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels, bringing the total down to 105.6 million barrels. Net US crude imports decreased by 1.75 million barrels per day. OPEC has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast downwards to 580,000 bpd, representing the fourth consecutive adjustment in a downward direction. However, it has increased its demand growth projection for 2027.

Crude oil is currently experiencing new buying activity, evidenced by a 7.63% rise in open interest to 13,680, alongside a price increase of Rs.55. Support is positioned at Rs.8,260, and a breach below this level could lead prices to decline toward Rs.8,160. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs.8,423, while a sustained movement above this level could propel prices toward Rs.8,486. Overall, the near-term bias appears favourable as geopolitical supply risks overshadow apprehensions regarding weaker demand growth.