Natural gas settled 0.6% higher at Rs 266.4 as traders balanced expectations for persistent summer heat against abundant supply. The latest EIA report showed U.S. utilities added only 16 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ended August 14, below the market expectation of 19 bcf, the 19 bcf injection recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 29 bcf. Inventories rose to 3.169 trillion cubic feet, 0.9% below the corresponding period last year but 6.2% above the five-year average, indicating comfortable supply availability despite stronger seasonal demand. In the previous week, storage increased by 36 bcf.

Average gas flows to nine major U.S. LNG export facilities stood at 17.2 bcfd in August, slightly below June’s record of 17.4 bcfd. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast through September 3, which could increase power-sector gas consumption and provide near-term price support. The EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to rise from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027. Domestic consumption is projected to increase from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027.

Meanwhile, average U.S. LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the August forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 22.19% to 17,269 while prices increased Rs 1.6. Natural gas has support at Rs 260.7, followed by Rs 255.0, while resistance is placed at Rs 271.8; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 277.2.