Crude oil settled 0.62% lower at Rs 9,758, reflecting a reduction in concerns regarding supply disruptions following Saudi Arabia’s indication that it could restore approximately half of the damaged East-West pipeline capacity within days and achieve full operations within six weeks. Saudi Aramco is endeavouring to circumvent impaired segments and restore partial flows, while Riyadh is extending extra crude cargoes to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers near Oman, thereby presenting an alternative export route in light of the disruptions at the Yanbu terminal. Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported that production has normalised following temporary shutdowns at three oilfields, alleviating immediate supply concerns.

However, geopolitical risks remain heightened as the Strait of Hormuz persists as a vital supply route, while tensions between Russia and Ukraine are impacting refined-product markets through assaults on Russian refineries. US crude inventories experienced a reduction of 640,000 barrels, bringing the total to 423.4 million barrels for the week ending September 11. This figure contrasts with forecasts that anticipated a draw of 1.6 million barrels. Additionally, Cushing inventories saw a decline of 342,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs experienced a reduction of 256,000 barrels per day, accompanied by a one percentage point decrease in utilisation, now standing at 96.8%. Petrol inventories experienced an increase of 794,000 barrels, reaching a total of 207.7 million barrels. In parallel, distillate stocks saw a rise of 1.6 million barrels, bringing the total to 107.9 million barrels.

Net US crude imports experienced a decline of 1.18 million barrels per day. OPEC has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast downwards to 380,000 barrels per day, representing the fifth consecutive reduction. In contrast, the organization has increased its demand growth projection for 2027. The International Energy Agency cautioned that global supply and demand may decline more than earlier anticipated, as diminishing inventories and constrained refining capacity heighten the risks of market tightening should disruptions in the Middle East continue.

Crude oil is currently experiencing new selling pressure, as indicated by a significant increase in open interest, which has surged by 24.4% to 15,818, while prices have decreased by Rs 61. Support is positioned at Rs 9,556, and a decline beneath this threshold may reveal Rs 9,353. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 9,900; a persistent advance beyond this point could propel prices toward Rs 10,041.