Natural gas concluded the trading session with a decline of 2.1%, settling at Rs 293.7. This downturn was influenced by anticipations of increased production in the United States, particularly following the resumption of operations of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline in West Virginia. The Columbia Gas Transmission unit of TC Energy has lifted the force majeure on the pipeline, which had impacted approximately 1.4-1.8 billion cubic feet per day of flows from the Marcellus and Utica shale regions, thereby enhancing expectations for stronger supplies in the forthcoming days.
LSEG reported average US Lower 48 gas production at 112.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, matching the record monthly level seen in August. However, daily output was expected to decline temporarily to 107.5 bcfd, partly due to pipeline maintenance. US petrol inventories continued to play a significant role in market dynamics, as the Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 53 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 18. This figure aligned with analyst expectations, yet it fell short of the 77-bcf build observed during the corresponding week last year and the five-year average increase of 76 bcf.
Despite robust summer demand for power generation, inventories have been sustained by unprecedented production levels. The EIA anticipates an increase in US dry gas production, forecasting a rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026, and further to 116.0 bcfd in 2027. Concurrently, domestic consumption is projected to reach 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are projected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Meanwhile, speculative net shorts decreased by 27,105 contracts to 27,158, reflecting a significant reduction in bearish positioning.
Natural gas is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 7.51% increase in open interest to 41,708, alongside a price decline of Rs 6.3. Support is positioned at Rs 289.7, and a persistent breach beneath this threshold may result in a decline to Rs 285.6. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 300.7, and a decisive move above this level could initiate a recovery toward Rs 307.6.
