Natural gas settled 0.96% lower at Rs 287.5, pressured by expectations of rising production and mild weather conditions that could keep heating and cooling demand subdued. The US Energy Information Administration reported a 64 billion cubic feet storage build for the week ended September 25, reinforcing concerns over comfortable supply levels. US Lower 48 gas output averaged 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in September, matching the record monthly level reached in August.
Strong production and mild weather have kept inventories above the five-year 2021-2025 average since March, with the surplus reaching 7.7% above normal in April. Average gas flows to nine major US LNG export plants increased to 17.9 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, although they remained below the record 18.8 bcfd recorded in April. The September increase came despite the temporary shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG facility for annual maintenance.
Earlier, storage increased by 53 bcf in the week ended September 18, matching analyst expectations but remaining below the 77-bcf build recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 76 bcf. The EIA expects both US natural gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026. Dry gas production is projected at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, compared with 107.6 bcfd in 2025, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027.
LNG exports are expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027 from 15.1 bcfd in 2025, supporting export demand despite periodic maintenance disruptions. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 16.11% to 54,157 while prices declined Rs 2.8. Natural gas is finding support near Rs 284.5, and a break below this level could expose Rs 281.5. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs 291.3, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 295.1.
