Copper settled 0.43% higher at Rs. 1,398.65, buoyed by increasing US inventories and an optimistic price outlook from Goldman Sachs, which elevated its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400 per tonne. The bank anticipates that the copper market will experience deficits of 950,000 tonnes outside the United States in 2026, followed by 220,000 tonnes in 2027. This projection is attributed to a decline in mine supply and increasingly constrained regional balances. BHP reported a 19% quarterly decline in copper production to 400,700 tonnes, attributed to disruptions in Chile and Australia, while still maintaining its annual guidance.
Meanwhile, China’s economic growth rebounded from three-year lows in the third quarter, supported by stronger exports; however, persistent weakness in the property market continued to weigh on demand prospects. In September, China experienced a month-on-month increase of 20.7% in copper imports, totalling 461,000 tonnes. Concurrently, copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise of 25.9% compared to the previous Friday. Supply developments exhibited a mixed landscape, with workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine concluding their strike, concurrently with the company announcing a 7% rise in third-quarter copper production. Chilean state miner Codelco reported an 8.9% year-on-year increase in August output, reaching 101,700 tonnes.
In contrast, production at BHP-controlled Escondida experienced a decline of 27.6%, totalling 76,100 tonnes, while Collahuasi saw a reduction of 25.1%, with output at 26,500 tonnes. In August, Peru’s copper production experienced a year-on-year decline of 5%, totalling 230,676 tonnes. However, the cumulative output for the period from January to August saw a modest increase of 1.2%, reaching 1.8 million tonnes. However, the International Copper Study Group projected that the global refined copper market will continue to exhibit a surplus, increasing from approximately 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027. Refined copper production is projected to grow by 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
Concurrently, apparent usage is anticipated to rise by 1.5% and 2.5% in the same years, bolstered by trends in electrification, renewable energy, data centers, and semiconductor manufacturing. Technically, copper is experiencing short covering as open interest decreased by 3.85% to 6,487 contracts, while prices increased by Rs. 6. Support is positioned at Rs. 1,389.50, with an additional level at Rs. 1,381, whereas resistance is identified at Rs. 1,405, beyond which prices may approach Rs. 1,412.
