Copper settled higher by 0.88% at Rs 1,405.35, buoyed by enhancing sentiment surrounding artificial intelligence stocks and robust demand from China, although a stronger currency limited the extent of gains. China’s Yangshan copper import premium has reached a significant level, climbing to almost a 13-year high of $188 per tonne. This surge underscores robust demand for imported metal. Concurrently, the London Metal Exchange cash contract is trading at a premium of $199.50 per tonne over the three-month forward contract, reflecting a situation of near-term supply tightness. China’s economy expanded by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, with industrial production in September rising by 5.5%, bolstering the demand outlook. Chinese copper imports increased by 20.7% month-on-month, reaching 461,000 tonnes in September.
Nonetheless, supply disruptions at significant mines in Chile and Peru persist in shaping market sentiment. Chilean state miner Codelco announced an 8.9% year-on-year rise in August production, reaching 101,700 tonnes. In contrast, output at Escondida experienced a decline of 27.6%, totalling 76,100 tonnes, while Collahuasi’s production decreased by 25.1%, amounting to 26,500 tonnes. In August, Peru experienced a year-on-year decline of 5% in copper output. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and anticipates an average price of $15,400 for 2027. This revision is attributed to a decline in mine supply and increasingly constrained markets beyond the United States.
However, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July. It anticipated that the global refined copper surplus would expand from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, driven by production growth outpacing consumption. Refined copper usage is projected to rise by 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, driven by factors such as electrification, renewable energy initiatives, digitalisation, and the growing demand for data centers.
Technically, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as open interest has risen by 20.84% to 6,749 contracts, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 12.3. Copper exhibits support levels at Rs 1,395.50 and Rs 1,386.00, with resistance identified at Rs 1,410.50. A sustained move above Rs 1,410.50 could propel prices toward Rs 1,416.00, while a breach below Rs 1,395.50 may initiate a decline toward Rs 1,386.00.
