Copper increased by 0.15% to close at Rs 1199.1, buoyed by a resurgence in buying interest as traders in mainland China resumed activities following the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Nonetheless, gains were limited due to renewed trade uncertainty following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate President Trump’s emergency tariffs, which led him to suggest a temporary 15% tariff on imports.

Meanwhile, LME warehouse stocks have increased to 243,175 tonnes, marking the highest level since March 2025, reflecting an approximate 70% rise this year. The cash copper contract persists in trading at a $100 discount to the three-month forward, suggesting a favourable near-term supply situation. On the supply side, output disruptions provided a degree of support. In December, Chile’s Collahuasi and Escondida mines experienced declines in production compared to the previous year, alongside a decrease in copper output from Peru.

Nonetheless, on a global scale, the refined market continues to exhibit a surplus, as indicated by the International Copper Study Group, which reported a surplus of 94,000 tonnes in November. In China, refined copper production experienced a significant increase in December; however, unwrought copper imports for 2025 declined by 6.4%, reaching their lowest level since 2020. In the near future, China intends to augment its strategic copper reserves, while Cochilco anticipates that prices will average $4.95 per pound in the current year.

From a technical perspective, there is evidence of new buying activity, as indicated by a 20% increase in open interest, reaching a total of 15,566. Support is identified at Rs 1186.6, with subsequent support at Rs 1174, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 1211.7. A movement surpassing this level may challenge Rs 1224.2.