Gold prices experienced a significant increase, closing up 3.33% at Rs 147,255, largely attributed to the reduction in geopolitical tensions following Donald Trump’s postponement of potential military action against Iran and the extension of the negotiation deadline to April 6. The transient alleviation in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with constrained oil flow interruptions, bolstered optimistic sentiment.

Nonetheless, the upward momentum was constrained as markets progressively eliminated expectations for U.S. rate reductions in 2026, in light of enduring inflationary pressures associated with the ongoing conflict. On the demand front, China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong surged 125% month-on-month to 46.25 tonnes, indicating robust underlying consumption. In India, demand exhibited a modest improvement attributed to softer prices; however, buyers continued to exercise caution. Global physical markets exhibited a varied landscape, characterized by diminishing premiums in China and stable to discounted pricing in other Asian hubs.

Institutional sentiment continues to be positive, as Commerzbank has elevated its year-end gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, attributing this adjustment to ongoing geopolitical risks and trends in central bank diversification. The World Gold Council noted persistent interest from central banks; however, high prices could lead to a slight moderation in buying volumes.

From a technical perspective, the market reflects a renewed appetite for purchasing, as evidenced by an 8.7% increase in open interest to 6,011 lots, coinciding with a price rise to Rs 4,741. Immediate support is identified at Rs 144,290, with potential downside risk extending to Rs 141,320. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 149,590; a breakout above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 151,920.