Natural gas experienced a modest increase of 0.24%, concluding at Rs 252.3, bolstered by a recent decline in production and robust inflows to U.S. LNG export facilities. Nonetheless, the increases were constrained as markets assessed the likelihood of diminished demand in the near term alongside the hopeful outlook regarding a possible reduction in tensions in the Middle East.

On the supply side, U.S. output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 110.4 bcfd so far in April, remaining consistent with March levels. However, daily production has decreased by nearly 3.9 bcfd over the past two weeks, reaching an 11-week low. Simultaneously, demand is anticipated to moderate, with forecasts indicating a decrease from 103.3 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd in the following week.

Storage data exerted additional pressure, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated build of 59 bcf, significantly surpassing both last year’s increase and the five-year average, primarily attributed to mild weather diminishing heating demand. In the coming years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that production will reach unprecedented levels through 2027, although demand is projected to experience a minor decline in 2026 before rebounding. LNG exports, however, are anticipated to maintain a consistent upward trajectory.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 13.6% decline in open interest, bringing it down to 23,872. Support is identified at Rs 248.4, with a downside target positioned at Rs 244.5, whereas resistance is noted at Rs 255.2. A breakout above this level may propel prices towards Rs 258.1.