Gold prices concluded the trading session relatively stable at Rs 160,911, as the robustness of the Indian Rupee above the 95 threshold limited upward movement. Meanwhile, market participants remained vigilant regarding the evolving situation related to a possible ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Despite reports indicating that both nations had reached an agreement to prolong a ceasefire and relax shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty persisted, as U.S. President Donald Trump had not yet formally endorsed the proposal. Simultaneously, apprehensions regarding enduring inflation and the potential for elevated U.S. interest rates sustained the demand for safe-haven assets.

U.S. inflation surged at its most rapid rate in three years in April, largely propelled by high energy prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East. Federal Reserve officials exhibited a prudent demeanour, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggesting that interest rate increases could be necessary should inflation not subside, whereas New York Fed President John Williams asserted that the current policy stance is suitably aligned despite immediate inflationary challenges.

Fundamental support for gold continues to be strong. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for central bank acquisitions to approximately 50 tonnes per month, projecting an average of 60 tonnes monthly through 2026 in light of persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that India’s investment demand for gold surged 52% year-on-year to 82 tonnes in the March quarter, surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time on record. Global gold demand experienced a 2% rise, reaching 1,230.9 tonnes in the first quarter, bolstered by robust investment inflows and ongoing central bank purchases.

From a technical perspective, gold is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest has increased by 18.99% to 7,764 contracts, while prices have remained largely unchanged. Immediate support is observed at Rs 159,970, succeeded by Rs 159,025. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 161,725, and a sustained move above this level could catalyse additional gains toward Rs 162,535.