Gold prices concluded the session with a slight decline of 0.25%, settling at Rs 159,606. This movement can be attributed to profit-taking and a prevailing cautious sentiment, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to offer a degree of support. Market sentiment exhibited sensitivity as hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement diminished, following reports indicating that Iran would maintain its uranium stockpile domestically. This development stands in contrast to previous expectations regarding the external transfer of uranium under any prospective agreement. Concerns have heightened as Iran is said to have reinstated military capabilities more swiftly than expected, rekindling apprehensions regarding enduring instability in the Middle East.

Rising geopolitical risks have driven crude oil prices nearer to four-year highs, heightening global inflationary concerns and bolstering expectations that major central banks might sustain a tighter monetary policy. Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that a majority of policymakers continue to perceive the potential for an additional rate hike this year, contingent upon inflation persisting above the 2% target. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are assigning a probability of nearly 49% to a rate increase in December.

Meanwhile, the demand for gold from central banks continued to serve as a significant supportive factor. Goldman Sachs has significantly increased its projections, anticipating that central banks will acquire close to 60 tonnes each month until 2026, driven by continued diversification of reserves. JPMorgan has adjusted its 2026 average gold price forecast downward; however, the institution anticipates that prices will near $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by a strengthening demand in the latter part of the year. Physical markets exhibited a mixed performance as India experienced unprecedented discounts following a significant increase in import duties to 15%. This development adversely affected jewellery demand while simultaneously enhancing the supply of scrap.

Investment demand in India experienced a remarkable increase of 52% year-on-year during the March quarter, surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time. Technically, the market experienced long liquidation, as evidenced by a 2.29% decline in open interest, bringing it down to 5,799 lots. Gold is maintaining support at Rs 158,770, with potential further decline that could test Rs 157,930. Resistance is identified at the levels of Rs 160,220 and Rs 160,830.