Gold prices fell by 0.29%, closing at Rs 141,850, as the release of softer U.S. inflation data alleviated immediate concerns regarding rate hikes. Concurrently, rising tensions in the Middle East and increasing crude oil prices sustained demand for safe-haven assets. Despite the easing of inflation bolstering expectations for forthcoming monetary easing, markets continued to factor in almost a 49% likelihood of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, thereby maintaining a cautious sentiment.

Investment banks have adopted a more cautious stance regarding gold’s medium-term prospects. ANZ has revised its year-end forecast to $4,600 per ounce and adjusted its 12-month target to $5,400 per ounce. The institution cautions that ongoing hawkish monetary policy may pull prices down to approximately $3,500 before finding stability in the range of $3,800 to $4,000. HSBC has adjusted its price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 downward, attributing this revision to a stronger U.S. dollar and the continuation of restrictive monetary policy.

Market positioning indicated a decline in investor confidence, as COMEX gold speculative net long positions decreased by 1,964 contracts, totalling 114,854. Physical demand exhibited a mixed pattern as Indian dealers provided discounts reaching $19 per ounce in response to fluctuating prices. Meanwhile, China’s central bank has continued its gold-buying streak for the 20th consecutive month, acquiring nearly 15 metric tonnes in June, while London vault holdings increased by 0.21% to 9,392 tonnes.

From a technical perspective, gold remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.31% alongside lower prices, indicating profit booking by bullish participants. Immediate support is established at Rs 140,920, succeeded by Rs 139,990, whereas resistance is identified at Rs 142,600 and Rs 143,350. A decisive move beyond these levels is likely to determine the next short-term directional trend.