Gold prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 0.97%, reaching Rs 144,299. This rise was bolstered by prudent safe-haven purchasing as investors navigated the ambiguous signals regarding potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, all while anticipating a series of crucial U.S. labour market reports that could provide new insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Market participants are closely monitoring the forthcoming JOLTS job openings, ADP employment data, and the non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Friday, as these indicators may significantly shape expectations regarding monetary policy.

Traders are currently assigning approximately a 65% likelihood to a Federal Reserve rate increase in September, as New York Fed President John Williams emphasised that policymakers are ready to implement further tightening should inflation not subside. Geopolitical uncertainty continued to capture attention as U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that discussions with Iran were in progress, a claim that Tehran has refuted. Physical gold demand exhibited a varied landscape among key consuming countries. In India, purchasing activity has remained muted as consumers anticipate a more definitive price trend, even as discounts have contracted to $44 per ounce from $56 the previous week. In contrast, the demand bolstered by a stronger yuan elevated Chinese premiums to a range of $5 to $8 per ounce.

London vault holdings rose by 0.77% month-on-month, reaching a total of 9,464 tonnes, with a valuation approaching $1.2 trillion. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that India’s net gold imports for the June quarter decreased by 23% year-on-year, totalling 98.1 tonnes, while domestic demand experienced a decline of 6%, amounting to 131.4 tonnes. In the second quarter, global gold demand exhibited relative stability at 1,268.9 tonnes, as substantial central bank acquisitions of 289 tonnes counterbalanced ETF outflows totalling 45 tonnes.

From a technical perspective, the market experienced short covering, as open interest decreased by 0.87% while prices surged significantly. Gold encounters immediate support at Rs 143,575, with subsequent support at Rs 142,855, while resistance is established at Rs 144,805. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 145,315, indicating that bullish momentum may continue if key resistance levels are successfully breached.