Aluminium prices concluded the session at Rs 341.05, reflecting a decline of 0.55%. This decrease was influenced by resurfacing inflation worries, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove crude oil prices higher, thereby strengthening the outlook for prolonged elevated global interest rates. However, the downside remained constrained as supply-side risks continued to bolster the market, with aluminium inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses persisting at their lowest levels since 2022. Supply developments exhibited a varied landscape.

Alcoa has adjusted its 2026 alumina production guidance downward by 200,000–300,000 tonnes due to disruptions stemming from Cyclone Narelle and operational challenges at its Pinjarra refinery in Australia. Emirates Global Aluminium has resumed operations at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month shutdown. Production is anticipated to achieve 50% capacity in the coming days, with a return to full capacity projected by the end of the year. Aluminium inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses experienced a decline of 1.12%, indicating a persistent tightness in visible stocks. China maintained its position as a leading force in global trade dynamics.

The country’s unwrought aluminium and product exports reached a historic high of 711,000 metric tonnes in June, reflecting a 12.5% increase from May. Additionally, first-half exports rose by 16.3% year-on-year, totalling 3.4 million tonnes. In contrast, aluminium imports decreased by 17.4% year-on-year in June, attributed to an adverse import arbitrage. China’s primary aluminium production rose by 4.7% year-on-year, reaching 3.98 million tonnes for the month. Meanwhile, Japanese port inventories experienced a decline of 7.8%, which in turn bolstered regional premiums.

Technically, the market experienced long liquidation, as open interest fell by 4.48% to 3,071 contracts, coinciding with a decline in prices. Immediate support is identified at Rs 339.6, with subsequent support at Rs 338.0, while resistance is established at Rs 343.2. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 345.2, although the near-term technical bias remains cautiously neutral.