Crude oil prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 0.49%, reaching Rs 7,949. This rise was underpinned by intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have maintained a notable risk premium within energy markets. Prices exhibited significant volatility following U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that Iran would be accountable for the fatalities of three U.S. service members. Concurrently, Yemen’s Houthi militants declared a maritime embargo aimed at Saudi Arabia, intensifying apprehensions regarding potential disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea. Iran’s Foreign Ministry indicated that discussions with the United States may persist if they correspond with national interests, providing a glimmer of optimism for diplomatic advancement despite the current military interactions.

Fundamental indicators exhibited a varied landscape. U.S. crude inventories experienced a decline of 1.693 million barrels, albeit the reduction fell short of market expectations. Petrol inventories decreased by 1.533 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks experienced a significant rise of 4.556 million barrels. Total U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased to 316.5 million barrels, marking the lowest level since April 1983, which underscores the tightening of long-term supply conditions.

Meanwhile, China’s refined fuel exports experienced an 18.3% year-on-year decline in June, attributed to export restrictions, although shipments showed a recovery from the preceding month. On the supply side, OPEC has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast downward to 780,000 barrels per day, representing the third consecutive reduction, while simultaneously increasing its outlook for 2027. OPEC+ has sanctioned an additional production increase of 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. However, actual output continues to fall short of pre-war levels, primarily due to regional disruptions.

Technically, the market experienced new buying activity, as open interest increased by 13.32% to reach 13,429 contracts, coinciding with a rise in prices. Immediate support is observed at Rs 7,718, with subsequent support at Rs 7,487, while resistance is established at Rs 8,169. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 8,389, maintaining a positive near-term bias.