Gold prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 0.34%, reaching Rs 141,388. This uptick was bolstered by short covering and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty related to the U.S.-Iran situation. Market participants closely observed diplomatic developments following Iran’s indication that negotiations with the United States could advance if they align with national interests. Simultaneously, anticipations of a more stringent U.S. monetary policy constrained advancements, as multiple Federal Reserve officials cautioned that additional interest rate increases might be necessary to manage ongoing inflationary pressures.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has aligned herself with a rising cohort of policymakers supporting elevated borrowing costs, intensifying speculation in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming policy meeting led by Chairman Kevin Warsh. Reflecting the shift in market expectations, CME FedWatch data now indicates an 80% probability of a December rate hike, compared with 73% a week earlier. This reinforces a stronger interest rate outlook that could influence investment demand for bullion. Demand for physical gold has remained lacklustre in key Asian markets.

In India, discounts expanded to approximately $45 per ounce above official domestic prices, a significant increase from $19 the previous week, as subdued jewellery demand and anticipations of declining prices led to a cautious approach among buyers. Chinese premiums exhibited a consistent range between par and $7 per ounce, with Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan also indicating predominantly stable physical markets. Meanwhile, gold holdings in London vaults rose by 0.77% month-on-month, reaching 9,464 tonnes at the end of June 2026. This amount is valued at approximately $1.2 trillion, which is equivalent to nearly 757,145 gold bars.

Technically, the market experienced short covering, as open interest decreased by 5.1% to 6,220 contracts while prices increased. Gold is maintaining immediate support at Rs 140,885, with subsequent support at Rs 140,380, while resistance is established at Rs 142,090. A sustained breakout above this level could extend the rally towards Rs 142,790, maintaining a cautiously positive near-term technical bias.