Gold and silver prices experienced a decline of up to 1% in early trading on the MCX on Tuesday, 28 July, reflecting the influence of subdued global indicators. Precious metals experienced profit-taking as the dollar index remained around 101.5 in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on 29 July. MCX gold August futures declined by 0.60% to Rs 1,42,200 per 10 grams, whereas MCX silver September contracts fell by 1.40% to Rs 2,18,076 per kg around 9:10 AM. In international markets, US gold prices experienced a decline as the easing of geopolitical tensions, stemming from the pause in retaliatory strikes between the US and Iran, led to a reduction in safe-haven demand. The attention is directed towards the policy decision of the US Federal Reserve on 29 July. The US central bank is widely anticipated to maintain benchmark rates within the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Market participants will pay careful attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks, as well as the upcoming US GDP and PCE inflation figures, seeking new insights into the direction of interest rates. Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, the de-escalation in the Middle East conflict has contributed to a further decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude experienced a decline exceeding 2%, trading close to $86 per barrel. Iran and the US ceased their strikes on 26 July. US President Donald Trump indicated that discussions were underway between the US and Iran, suggesting the possibility of a forthcoming agreement. However, Iran denied any direct negotiations with Washington. “Gold is under pressure amid lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in July. Moreover, Trump’s comments that the US was engaged in talks with Iran to end the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices lower and eased concerns over inflation, weighing on gold prices,”

Manoj Kumar Jain indicated that gold has support levels at $4,034 and $4,000, with resistance levels at $4,110 and $4,140 per troy ounce. Silver exhibits support levels at 57.20 and 56.60, with resistance identified at 59.40 and 60 per troy ounce in the current trading session. On the MCX, gold exhibits support levels at Rs 1,42,200 and Rs 1,41,400, with resistance identified at Rs 1,44,000 and Rs 1,45,150. In contrast, silver shows support at Rs 2,19,100 and Rs 2,17,000, while resistance is noted at Rs 2,24,000 and Rs 2,26,600, according to Jain.

“We suggest buying gold on dips around Rs 1,42,000 with a stop loss below Rs 1,41,000 for the targets of Rs 1,43,650 and buying silver on dips around Rs 2,19,000 with a stop loss below Rs 2,16,600 for the targets of Rs 2,24,400,” said Jain. Ravi Singh observed that the yellow metal continues to trade below both the 21-day and 55-day EMAs, indicating a weak short-term trend. “Unless prices decisively move above the 21-day EMA, the preferred strategy remains sell on rise. On the downside, Rs 1,40,000 continues to be the key support, and a breach below this level could trigger another round of selling,” said Singh.