Crude oil concluded the trading session with a gain of 0.49%, reaching Rs 8643, as renewed military actions by the US against Iran and new threats from Israel toward Tehran heightened apprehensions regarding possible disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East. On Wednesday, six commodity vessels navigated the Strait of Hormuz, a decline from the 11 recorded the previous day and below the 10-day average of approximately 13, underscoring heightened shipping risks. Iraq markedly raised its oil exports to approximately 2.34 million barrels per day in August, up from 1.35 million bpd in July. This increase was bolstered by substantial discounts and the granting of approvals for Iraqi tankers to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

Russia anticipates the restoration of the remaining 10% of its refining capacity that was impacted by Ukrainian drone strikes. OPEC+ is expected to keep its October output policy steady as it finalises the unwinding of one tier of production cuts and redirects its attention to the quotas set for 2027. Meanwhile, US crude inventories experienced a reduction of 4.45 million barrels in the final week of August, marking the first decline in five weeks and surpassing expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw. Cushing stocks experienced an increase of 0.08 million barrels, whereas refinery crude runs saw a rise of 0.103 million bpd.

Petrol inventories experienced a decline of 1.173 million barrels, while distillate stocks saw an increase of 0.796 million barrels. OPEC has revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast downward to 580,000 barrels per day, representing the fourth consecutive adjustment in this direction, while simultaneously increasing its demand growth outlook for 2027. Crude oil is experiencing renewed buying interest, evidenced by a 14.15% rise in open interest to 17,091, alongside a price increase of Rs 42, suggesting robust participation supporting the upward trend.

Prices are maintaining their position above the immediate support level at Rs 8467, and continued trading above this threshold may preserve the bullish sentiment. A breach beneath Rs 8467 could initiate a correction toward Rs 8290, whereas resistance is established at Rs 8806. A decisive move above Rs 8806 could extend the upside toward 8968, with geopolitical developments and US inventory trends remaining key near-term drivers.