Copper settled 1.87% higher at Rs 1,412.60 as the market maintained its attention on tightening supply outside the United States and robust metal flows into U.S. warehouses. COMEX copper inventories reached an unprecedented level of 766,795 short tonnes, which translates to 695,624 metric tonnes, underscoring a notable increase in stockpiles within the United States. In contrast, LME-registered warehouse stocks experienced significant warrant cancellations, with over 51% of warrants being cancelled. Meanwhile, SHFE-monitored inventories were approximately 63,000 tonnes, reflecting an 85% decline from the mid-March peak and marking the lowest level since January 2024.

The ongoing backwardation in the LME cash-to-three-month market further suggests a constrained supply in the near term. China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased to 382,000 tonnes in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July. For the period from January to August, imports experienced a year-on-year decline of 6.7%, totalling 3.30 million tonnes. Copper concentrate imports decreased to 19.49 million tonnes in the first eight months, down from 20.06 million tonnes in the same period last year. Supply concerns were further underscored by the decline in Chilean copper production, which fell 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tonnes, attributed to severe storms and adverse weather conditions in northern mining areas.

The global refined copper market experienced a deficit of 60,000 tonnes in June, contrasting with a surplus of 15,000 tonnes in May. Nevertheless, the market for the first half of the year maintained a surplus of 131,000 tonnes, compared to 114,000 tonnes during the same period last year. In June, refined copper production reached 2.37 million tonnes, while consumption was recorded at 2.43 million tonnes. China’s July copper imports experienced a decline of 11.5% year-on-year. For the period from January to July, total imports decreased by 6.2%, amounting to 2.92 million tonnes.

Additionally, imports of copper ore and concentrate saw a reduction of 1.8%, totalling 16.99 million tonnes. Technically, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 5.46% increase in open interest to 11,478, alongside a price increase of Rs 25.90. Copper has support at Rs 1,395.80, and a break below could test Rs 1,379.00, while resistance is placed at Rs 1,422.40; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,432.20.