Natural gas concluded the trading session with a decline of 2.45%, settling at Rs 274.30. This downturn was influenced by record production levels in the U.S., high storage capacities, and anticipations of sufficient supplies for the winter season. The premium of November futures over October has decreased to a historic low of approximately $0.11 per MMBtu, reflecting minimal apprehension regarding supply sufficiency for the forthcoming winter. Average U.S. Lower 48 gas output rose to 113.7 Bcf per day in September, surpassing the previous monthly record of 112.2 Bcf per day set in August. This increase can be attributed to mild spring weather and robust production, which have maintained inventories above the five-year average since March.

Average demand in the Lower 48 states, encompassing exports, is projected to decrease from 111.9 Bcf per day this week to 109.1 Bcf per day in the following week. Gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities rose to 18.3 Bcf per day in September, up from 17.2 Bcf per day in August, yet still fell short of the April peak of 18.8 Bcf per day. U.S. working gas inventories experienced an increase of 30 Bcf in the week ending August 28, reaching a total of 3,214 Bcf. This figure reflects a year-on-year decline of 50 Bcf, yet it remains 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,054 Bcf. The EIA projects that U.S. dry gas production will grow from 107.6 Bcf per day in 2025 to 111.2 Bcf per day in 2026, and further to 116.0 Bcf per day in 2027.

Domestic consumption is anticipated to be 92.0 Bcf per day in 2026 and 94.8 Bcf per day in 2027. Meanwhile, LNG exports are expected to rise to 17.4 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf per day in 2027. Germany anticipates storage levels between 60% and 70% at the onset of winter, alongside import alternatives, to satisfy projected demand without necessitating state intervention. Technically, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest has surged by 56.86% to 53,768, coinciding with a price decline of Rs 6.90. Natural gas exhibits a support level at Rs 269.30; a breach beneath this threshold may lead to a further decline toward Rs 264.30. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 282.60, and a sustained movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 290.90.