Gold and silver prices commenced trading on a positive note on the Multi Commodity Exchange this Wednesday, even as anticipation builds around a potential rate hike in the US Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decision, set against a backdrop of intensifying geopolitical tensions. In the domestic market, silver futures for September 2026 delivery increased by Rs 4,000, reaching Rs 2,35,988 per kg. Gold futures for October 2026 delivery increased by Rs 1,300, reaching Rs 1,52,100 per 10 grams. Markets are currently reflecting a 92.4% likelihood of a minimum 25-basis-point increase in rates later on Wednesday, as indicated by CME FedWatch. The decision will be succeeded by a press conference led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

A hawkish Fed could further depress gold prices, whereas any dovish messaging might alleviate expectations of rate hikes and support a recovery for the metal. Gold is often perceived as a safeguard against inflation; however, elevated interest rates raise the opportunity cost associated with maintaining non-yielding bullion. The dollar maintained its position close to recent peaks, while oil prices continued to hover above $100 per barrel. A stronger dollar increases the cost of gold, which is denominated in US currency, for purchasers utilising alternative currencies. Increased oil prices may contribute to inflationary pressures. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has issued security alerts across multiple regions, encompassing the holy city of Mecca and the second-largest city, Jeddah. The alerts came in the wake of a week marked by assaults from Iran-aligned fighters, which have increasingly entangled Saudi Arabia in the ongoing regional conflict.

Spot gold declined by 0.1% to $4,288.48 per ounce following a dip to a level not seen in over a month on Monday. US gold futures for December delivery experienced a decline of 0.1%, settling at $4,328.10. Among other precious metals, spot silver remained unchanged at $63.67 per ounce, whereas platinum experienced a decline of 0.3%, settling at $1,770.47. Palladium experienced an increase of nearly 1%, reaching a value of $1,301.61. Manoj Kumar Jain anticipates that gold and silver prices will exhibit volatility this week, influenced by fluctuations in crude oil prices and the dollar index, as well as in anticipation of the outcomes from the monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. For today’s session, Jain anticipates gold to establish support in the range of $4,310-$4,264 per troy ounce, while facing resistance between $4,355 and $4,400.

For silver, he anticipates support in the range of $63.00 to $62.20 and resistance between $64.40 and $65.50 per troy ounce. On the MCX, gold exhibits support levels between Rs 1,50,150 and Rs 1,49,400, with resistance positioned between Rs 1,51,500 and Rs 1,52,200. In contrast, silver shows support at Rs 2,30,000 to Rs 2,27,700, while resistance is noted between Rs 2,34,400 and Rs 2,37,000. Jain indicated that long-term investors might consider accumulating gold and silver during market downturns, whereas traders ought to await the outcome of the FOMC meeting before establishing new positions.