Natural gas prices experienced a modest increase, rising by 1.46% to close at Rs 250.2, primarily driven by a recent decline in production and robust demand for LNG exports. Flows to U.S. LNG terminals persisted at levels close to record highs through April, providing a consistent underpinning for prices. Nonetheless, the potential for growth remained constrained as projections indicated a decline in demand in the short term, with anticipated milder weather likely to dampen both heating and cooling requirements. On the supply side, output in the United States.

The average natural gas consumption across the Lower 48 states has reached approximately 110.6 billion cubic feet per day this month, which is marginally higher than the levels observed in March and nearing historical peaks. Nonetheless, daily production has exhibited indications of a slowdown in recent days, especially in pivotal areas such as Texas and Louisiana. Demand expectations have moderated, with forecasts suggesting that consumption may decline to approximately 99.9 bcfd in the forthcoming two weeks.

In the interim, storage data exerted additional pressure, with inventories increasing by 59 bcf—significantly surpassing both market expectations and the five-year average—indicative of subdued seasonal demand. In the future, the EIA projects an increase in production coupled with a modest decline in demand by 2026, while LNG exports are anticipated to experience consistent growth.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 13.03% decline in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is established at Rs 245.4, with a more significant level at Rs 240.7. On the upside, resistance is identified at Rs 253.3, and a breach above this level could propel prices toward Rs 256.5.