Gold prices experienced a decline of 0.65%, settling at Rs 149,050. This movement is indicative of the ongoing pressures stemming from persistent inflation concerns and the anticipation of sustained higher interest rates. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially regarding U.S.–Iran developments, contributed to uncertainty; however, they did not bolster bullion, as expectations of monetary tightening prevailed in shaping market sentiment. The expansion of the U.S. goods deficit to $87.9 billion in March underscored existing macroeconomic imbalances, despite a rise in exports to a record $211.5 billion, primarily driven by industrial supplies. The dynamics of the physical market exhibited a mixed yet supportive trend across key regions.

In India, gold premiums have escalated to levels not seen in over two-and-a-half months, now standing at $15 per ounce. This increase is attributed to supply disruptions stemming from import delays that have resulted in bullion being held up at customs. Seasonal demand during Akshaya Tritiya offered constrained support, although purchasing activity remained beneath customary levels. In China, premiums increased to $9–$12 per ounce, indicating enhanced demand, whereas other Asian centers like Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore experienced relatively stable pricing. On the global front, demand trends continued to exhibit a constructive trajectory.

Total gold demand increased by 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, propelled by robust investment inflows and consistent purchases by central banks. Bar and coin demand experienced a significant increase of 42%, reaching 473.6 tonnes, which represents the highest level recorded since 2013, driven primarily by China. Meanwhile, London vault holdings rose by 1.4% to 9,339 tonnes, reflecting ongoing institutional accumulation.

The market is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, as indicated by a 3.78% increase in open interest to 9,539, which suggests the establishment of new short positions. Gold exhibits immediate support at Rs 147,495, presenting a downside risk towards Rs 145,935. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 151,070, and a breakout above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 153,085.