Copper concluded the trading session down by 0.96% at Rs 1385.45, as profit-taking occurred following stronger-than-anticipated U.S. inflation figures, which in turn strengthened the dollar and diminished expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate reductions. Market participants exhibited a degree of caution in anticipation of the forthcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agenda is likely to encompass discussions on trade, rare earth supplies, and investments related to artificial intelligence, all of which are expected to have a significant impact on the sentiment surrounding broader industrial metals.
Despite the decline, the downside remained constrained due to ongoing concerns regarding global mine supply disruptions and tight inventories. Anticipations of heightened demand from China have sustained market momentum, as refined copper imports are expected to increase in the second quarter due to smelter maintenance and robust demand driven by power grid expansion, electrification, and infrastructure related to artificial intelligence. Supply concerns also persisted after Freeport-McMoRan asserted that full production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine would resume by the end of 2027, despite previously revising its second-half 2026 recovery forecast down to 65% from 85%.
Additional backing was provided by interruptions in sulphuric acid shipments due to the conflict in the Middle East, while China’s prohibition on sulphuric acid exports from May to December intensified refining apprehensions. Chile’s copper production experienced a decline of approximately 6% in the first quarter of 2026, underscoring ongoing challenges facing global mine output. In the interim, inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses decreased by 5.6%, indicating a contraction in physical availability. According to the International Copper Study Group, a global refined copper surplus of 276,000 metric tons was recorded in February, with a forecasted surplus of 96,000 tons for 2026, attributed to a deceleration in demand growth and an increase in secondary production.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 1.23% increase in open interest, which has settled at 10,334, alongside a decline in prices by Rs 13.45. Copper is currently finding support at Rs 1378; a decline below this level may lead prices to test Rs 1370.4. Resistance is identified at Rs 1395.7, with potential for further upward movement towards Rs 1405.8.