Gold prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 0.72%, reaching Rs 144,162. This rise was bolstered by a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and a slight reduction in anticipations regarding stringent U.S. monetary policy following the publication of inflation statistics. The dollar experienced a decline from its recent peaks after the release of the Fed’s favoured inflation measure, which in turn offered renewed support to bullion. Simultaneously, newly appointed Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s dedication to managing inflation, alleviating worries regarding hasty policy relaxation in the face of political pressure. The Federal Reserve also raised its 2026 PCE inflation projections, while headline PCE inflation accelerated to 4.1% in May.

Markets are currently factoring in three rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, with an approximate 62% likelihood that the initial increase will occur in September. Physical market trends exhibited a varied landscape across key consuming regions. Gold experienced a premium in India for the first time in almost six weeks, driven by a recent price correction that stimulated buying activity, despite overall demand remaining at moderate levels. In contrast, Chinese bullion persisted in trading at discounts, indicative of muted consumer demand, even as the People’s Bank of China prolonged its gold reserve acquisitions for a 19th consecutive month.

However, China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong experienced a decline of approximately 38% in May. Meanwhile, London vault holdings experienced a slight uptick, reaching 9,392 tonnes. Simultaneously, the World Gold Council indicated that global gold ETFs experienced net outflows amounting to US$2 billion in May, primarily driven by withdrawals from Asia and North America. However, year-to-date ETF inflows continue to exhibit a robust positive trend.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 0.18% decline in open interest alongside a significant increase in prices. Gold is maintaining immediate support around Rs 143,165, with additional support at Rs 142,165. Resistance is established at Rs 144,975. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 145,785, maintaining a cautiously positive near-term bias.