Natural gas prices concluded the trading session with a 0.38% increase, reaching Rs 312.9. This uptick was bolstered by enhanced flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export facilities, alongside predictions of above-normal temperatures that are anticipated to elevate electricity demand for air conditioning purposes. Weather forecasts suggest that above-average temperatures will continue until July 11, leading to heightened natural gas usage by power generators, who represent almost 40% of electricity production in the United States.

According to LSEG, the average natural gas production in the U.S. The Lower 48 states maintained a consistent output of 109.7 billion cubic feet per day in June, approaching historical highs. The firm anticipates that total petrol demand, encompassing exports, will increase from 102.8 bcfd this week to 108.6 bcfd over the forthcoming two weeks. LNG export activity also remained robust, with average feedgas flows to the nine major U.S. export plants rising to 17.3 bcfd in June, bolstered by record deliveries to the Golden Pass LNG facility in Texas. Fundamental data continued to indicate a balanced market.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 76 billion cubic feet storage injection for the week ended June 19, which aligns with market expectations and is near the five-year seasonal average, resulting in inventories approximately 5.7% above normal. Looking ahead, the EIA anticipates that both U.S. natural gas production and consumption will achieve record highs by 2026. Dry gas production is anticipated to rise to 111.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, whereas domestic consumption is expected to reach 92.1 billion cubic feet per day. LNG exports are projected to increase to 17.2 bcfd, indicative of growing export capacity and consistent international demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 9.73% decline in open interest alongside rising prices. Natural gas exhibits immediate support at Rs 309, with subsequent support at Rs 305.1. Resistance is established at Rs 318.1. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 323.3, indicating a cautiously positive near-term outlook.